About extreme heat and El Niño
As our climate changes, average temperatures are projected to continue rising, and extreme weather events, including very high temperatures and heatwaves are expected to become more frequent.
One major climate pattern that can influence extreme heat weather is El Niño. What’s that, you may ask? Let us get you in the know…
El Niño is one phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate cycle that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the atmosphere. Earth Sciences New Zealand have declared an El Niño climate pattern for Aotearoa’s 2026/27 summer season. You can read more information about it by visiting the Earth Sciences New Zealand El Niño 2026 information hub.
For the Bay of Plenty, the impacts of El Niño are likely to be felt from early spring 2026 until the end of April 2027. These impacts may include reduced rainfall, hotter-than-average temperatures, strong winds, and prolonged dry periods, all of which contribute to an increased wildfire risk across the region.
Extreme heat can affect anyone, so it's important to be aware of the associated hazards and know where to access trusted information and advice to help keep yourself and your whānau safe.
Are you prepared for extreme heat?
Extreme heat, including even small increases above average temperatures, can have serious impacts on people's health and wellbeing. Babies, older adults, and those with long-term health conditions are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illness.
MetService is responsible for monitoring weather conditions and issuing heat alerts when temperatures are forecast to be unusually high or exceptionally hot for a particular area. There are some steps you can take to help reduce the impacts of extreme heat:
Stay informed about the latest forecasted temperatures from MetService so you can plan and prepare for extreme heat.
Stay inside in a properly insulated environment. You can put weather stripping around doors and windows to keep cool air inside.
If you have air conditioning, check ducts for proper insulation.
Be sunsmart, and don’t forget to slip, slop, slap, and wrap!
Stay hydrated and drink plenty of water.
Limit physical activity during hot weather.
Seek immediate medical attention if you see signs of heatstroke/sunstroke.
For more information on health effects from heat and keeping cool in hot weather, visit: Health effects from heat.
Just like us humans, pets and animals can be impacted by extreme heat in many different ways, and unfortunately, they cannot speak to let us know how they are feeling! That’s why it’s important to check on your animals often and take extra care of them during extreme heat. To help your furry friends:
Bring pets indoors or in the shade if you can.
Avoid walking dogs during the hottest part of the day to prevent their paws from burning.
Provide plenty of drinking water.
If you think your animals or pets are displaying signs and/or symptoms of heat stress, contact your local veterinarian for advice. If you are concerned about a dog locked inside a hot vehicle, contact the SPCA on 0800 SPCA NZ or the Police on 111, immediately.
Drought
Over summer, Aotearoa typically experiences lower rainfall and warmer temperatures. However, El Niño is expected to intensify these conditions, increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry spells and drought. Drought not only causes soils and vegetation to dry out, but can also lead to water shortages as river, stream, lake, dam, and reservoir levels decline.
Due to the extent of economic, environmental and social impacts drought can have, particularly on the agricultural sector, the Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) is responsible for classifying droughts. There are some steps you can take to help reduce the impacts of drought:
Plan for water restrictions and use water efficiently. Check out our information on ways you can store emergency drinking water safely.
Check your local council’s website and Facebook page to stay informed about the latest updates on any water shortages and restrictions in your area.
If you would like some more information on preparing for El Nino and dealing with drought conditions, visit the MPI website.
Pro Tip!
Severe weather
El Niño may bring an increased risk of severe weather to Aotearoa, including stronger and more frequent westerly winds. While tropical cyclones are generally less common during an El Niño climate pattern, they can still occur, and those that do may be more intense. Severe weather can damage property, disrupt critical infrastructure, and pose risks to public safety. There are some steps you can take to help reduce the impacts of severe weather:
Bring inside or tie down anything that strong winds could break or pick up.
Remove any debris or loose items from around your property that can become missiles in strong wind, such as branches and firewood.
If a tropical cyclone occurs following a prolonged dry period, the risk of flooding may be heightened, as dry, hardened ground is less able to absorb heavy rainfall efficiently. If you see rising water, trust your danger sense and get to high ground immediately. Never walk, drive, swim, or play in floodwater.
Wildfire
It’s anticipated that hot, dry, and windy El Niño conditions will elevate wildfire risk this summer. In New Zealand, around 98% of wildfires are caused by people, and you don’t need to live rurally to be at risk from wildfire. If there’s vegetation close by and potential for someone to generate a spark, then there’s a wildfire risk. However, there are some simple steps you can follow to help keep your whānau and property safe is:
Always check whether it’s safe to light a fire and if you’ll need a fire permit at Fire prevention and fire safety | Fire and Emergency New Zealand.
Clear dead and dry vegetation that is around buildings.
Call 111 if your life or property is threatened, or if you can’t evacuate on your own.
Have an emergency plan and grab bag prepared so you know where you’ll go if you have to evacuate and you’ll have emergency supplies on hand if you have to leave in a hurry.
To learn more ways to reduce your fire risk, visit Reduce your risk | Fire and Emergency New Zealand.
If you see or smell smoke outside, you should stay inside if it’s safe to do so.
Remember to:
Keep your windows and doors shut
Switch your air conditioning to ‘recirculate’
Air out your house when the smoke clears
Look out for children, older people, and others at risk
Keep pets inside with clean water and food. Keep pets’ bedding inside if possible.